The thesis in one sentence
Every advanced chip in the world — Apple's A-series, NVIDIA's H100s, AMD's Ryzen — runs through TSMC's fabs. There is no alternative at scale.
Why it's still a buy
TSMC controls approximately 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductor manufacturing (sub-5nm). The moat here isn't just capital — it's accumulated process knowledge that took decades to build and can't be replicated quickly.
Key reasons I'm holding:
- N3 and N2 ramp — Next-gen nodes are on track and customer demand is strong
- AI tailwinds — Every major AI chip is TSMC-fabbed. This isn't slowing down
- Geopolitical hedge — Yes, Taiwan risk is real. But TSMC is building fabs in Arizona and Japan, reducing concentration risk over time
- Pricing power — They raised ASPs and customers paid. That's a real moat signal
The risk
Taiwan Strait tension is the obvious one. I don't think it's imminent, but it's not zero. I size accordingly — meaningful position, not all-in.
Current position
Long TSM. Not adding aggressively at current levels but not trimming either. Watching the N2 ramp closely.
Not financial advice. This is a personal log of my own thinking.